In the days surrounding last month’s Democratic convention, it turns out, Clinton had more on his mind than his acceptance speech in Chicago and Dick Morris’s escapades in a Washington hotel suite. Five days before the convention, the CIA saw evidence that Saddam was moving troops toward Kurd cities in northern Iraq. But the Kurds are supposed to be under allied protection. On the day Clinton arrived in Chicago, the administration sent a letter to Saddam warning him against military action. But on the day after the convention ended, 35,000 Iraqi troops and 300 tanks swept into the Kurdish city of Erbil, ostensibly at the invitation of a Kurdish faction there.

Clinton knew there would be little diplomatic support for a military reaction. British Prime Minister John Major supported extending the no-fly zone that limits Iraqi military flights to central Iraq. French President Jacques Chirac urged diplomatic pressure: suspending a U.N.-approved plan to allow Iraq to sell $2 billion worth of oil to buy medicine and food. Arab nations, many of which supported Desert Storm in 1991, opposed new military moves. Turkey, a staging ground then, would not be one now.

In the Old State House, Clinton decided to go it alone. He approved a plan that was carefully targeted politically and militarily–but risky nevertheless. To back a demand that Saddam leave Erbil, the president ordered Guam-based B-52s and ships in the international waters of the Persian Gulf to launch a cruise-missile strike against Iraqi air-defense sites. Without Turkey to help in the north, Clinton ordered an expansion of the no-fly zone in the south. The United Nations would withdraw permission for “humanitarian” oil sales by the Iraqis. By midweek, Clinton was in the Oval Office, declaring in time for the evening news that Operation Desert Strike was a success. “Our mission has been achieved,” he said.

Sort of. Extending the no-fly zone forced Saddam to abandon an important training center south of Baghdad and to remove 43 MiG jets from two airfields. A march on Kuwait–the real object of Saddam’s desire–would now be more difficult. But the Iraqi assault crippled a CIA operation to topple Saddam that had been in place since the gulf war. Clinton agreed to expand the covert effort last January, despite administration doubts that it had much chance of succeeding. The U.S. attack did force Saddam to withdraw his troops from Erbil, but he left behind intelligence agents to consolidate control of a pro-Iraq faction. NEWSWEEK has learned that they have started to execute Kurds and Iraqi defectors thought to have worked with the CIA.

Still, there were political benefits at home–at least in the short run. Clinton didn’t order the strike to boost his poll numbers; he was more concerned that any American casualties would depress them. But for now there were no U.S. deaths to mar the beloved-by-voters scene of missiles sending a message to the Butcher of Baghdad. Bob Dole had no choice but to offer grumbling support. More important, the leading alumni of Desert Storm backed Clinton. NEWSWEEK has learned that Colin Powell–gulf war architect and featured speaker at the GOP convention–privately advised Dole to lower his voice, support the troops and accept the fact that any more sweeping action could draw America into a Kurdish civil war. Powell himself reluctantly appeared on TV, praising Clinton for doing “just the right thing.”

Some Pentagon officials groused that Desert Strike was a pinprick, not the sledgehammer needed. (They’re not up for re-election in November.) Iraq’s Republican Guard was untouched, with four divisions lingering in the north. Saddam may still be tempted to accept other “invitations” from Kurdish factions. The U.S. hope was that Saddam would lie low in hopes the United Nations would relent and give him what he desperately wants: permission to sell oil.

The fracture of the anti-Saddam alliance was inevitable, but now apparent. France, eager to trade with Iraq, refused to enforce the extended no-fly zone. The Arab nations noted that Saddam’s Kurds were fighting Iran-backed Kurds–and to gulf states potentates, the Iranians are now the greater evil. The State Department warned of a rise in anti-U.S. rhetoric in the region.

Ironically, Clinton may have given Saddam something as valuable as land, oil or airspace. He can sell himself as Fidel of Arabia, standing up to Iran, to the West and, above all, to the gray-eyed Satan in the Oval Office. For Clinton, the good news iis that shrewdly managing Operation Desert Strike may help him get re-elected. The bad news is that Saddam will be there to greet him in a second term.

In 1991 the U.S.-led coalition forced Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait but stopped short of toppling his brutal regime. Last week factional Kurdish fighting in northern Iraq provided a new military opportunity for Saddam and forced the U.S. into another confrontation. But this time, the anti-Saddam coalition was crumbling and the lines in the sand were considerably less clear.

The end of the gulf war left the Iraqi Kurdes unified in pursuit of autonomy. But by 1994, two factions had resumed their decades-old struggle for dominance.

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan

In July PUK leader Jalal Talabani accecpted arms and troop assistance from Iran to attack areas controlled by the larger KDP.

Iran

It says it entered Iraq to protect itself from militant Kurds. But leader Hashemi Rafasanjani also saw a chance to extend his influence and forge a land link to Syria.

Kurdistan Democratic Party

Panicked and in retreat, KDP leader Massoud Barzani appealed to Saddam, a long-time enemy, to push Iran-backed PUK out of Erbil.

Iraq

Saddam Hussein saw the invitation as an opportunity to consolidate his power after the gulf-war defeat. He could also keep Iran from gaining the upper hand in the area.

The KDP sends a letter to Saddam Hussein, inviting him into Erbil, the provincial capital. Eight days later the Republican guiard, with T-72 tank divisions, roll into the protected enclave and take the city. Warnings from the U.S. to stand down go unheeded.

In retaliaton, President Clinton orders a cruise missile attack directd at air-defense sites in southern Iraq. The USS Laboon and USS Shiloh, a destroyer and a cruiser, and two U.S. B-52s based in Guam fire 27 Tomahawk and AGM-86 missiles from the gulf. The U.S. also extends the no-fly zone 60 miles to the north. Local allies refuse to participate in the strikes or allow the U.S. planes to use their bases, and much of the world criticizes the American action.

In what is called a “mop-up operation,” 17 Tomahawks are launched from the Laboon, the Russell and the Hewitt, all destroyers in the Gulf, and the Jefferson City, an attack submarine. The targets are military installations that were not destroyed in the first attack.

Confident that Iraqi air defenses have been disables, the U.S. begins air missions in the newly expanded no-fly zone. Minutes later, two Iraqi MiG fighters approach U.S. aircraft monitoring the region. They retreat before reaching the 33d parallel. Shortly after that, an Iraqi S-8 mobile missile battery targets a U.S. Air Force F-16. The pilot fires an anti-radar HARM missile and destroys the radar.

Turkey launches air-strikes against its own rebel Kurdish separatists who have been fighting from bases in northern Iraq. Turkish troops mass along the border as a pre-cursor to setting up a buffer zone.

The U.S. claims victory, reporting Iraq has withdrawn most of its troops from the region. But reports indicate the Kurdish parties continue to fight south of Erbil, and the Saddam has left behind some troop divisions and a major network of secret police.

U.S. Role

After the gulf war, the allies set up an enclave for the Kurds, and later tried to broker a peace between factions. Clinton responded to Iraq’s new incursion by boming in the south-to punish Saddam and prevent him from attacking Kuwait again. But he said the U.S. was not taking sides in the Kurdish struggle.

Allied Reaction

Gulf-war allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey refused to support the bombings. They fear that weakening Saddam could destabilize the region, and worry about alienating their pro-Iraq populations. Also, Turkey’s new Islamist prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, seeks to strengthen ties and restore trade with Saddam.

The Region

Saddam has abot 400,000 troops and 80% of his preware arsenal. His most potent threat comes from hidden Scud missiles and mobile launchers that are hard to detect.

They are the largest ethnic group in the world without a nation of their own. The two major factions in northern Iraq have about 40,000 troops.

Iraqi troops attacked one Kurdish faction at the behest of another.

Clinton extended the no-fly zone by 60 miles, bringing it up to the southern suburbs of Baghdad.

The U.S. targeted Iraqi command and control, air-defense and communication sites at air bases and a ground training center.

A total of 44 cruise missiles were fired. They have ranges of about 700 miles and cruising speeds of 550 mph. B-52 bombers had to make the 34-hour round trip rom Guam to the gulf..